Narrative Fallacy

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We like stories and we like to summarize. We also like to simplify and reduce.

Our vulnerability to over interpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths, severely distorts our mental representation of the world – particularly acute during the rare event (i.e. Black Swan)

Information wants to be reduced. Explanations bind facts together and help things to make sense – but this is where it goes wrong because it increases our impression of understanding.

Problems of Induction: We must examine what can be inferred about the Unseen; what lies OUTSIDE the information set – then we must look at the Seen.

We can get closer to the truth by examining negative instances vs. observed facts.

What you don’t know is far more relevant than what you do know.

The very nature of randomness lies in its abstraction.

Avoid learned philistines: They are the blue collars of the thinking business.

When dealing with uncertainty – the worst thing you can do is to FOCUS.

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