Narrative Fallacy

Screen Shot 2017-12-03 at 8.05.47 PM

We like stories and we like to summarize. We also like to simplify and reduce.

Our vulnerability to over interpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths, severely distorts our mental representation of the world – particularly acute during the rare event (i.e. Black Swan)

Information wants to be reduced. Explanations bind facts together and help things to make sense – but this is where it goes wrong because it increases our impression of understanding.

Problems of Induction: We must examine what can be inferred about the Unseen; what lies OUTSIDE the information set – then we must look at the Seen.

We can get closer to the truth by examining negative instances vs. observed facts.

What you don’t know is far more relevant than what you do know.

The very nature of randomness lies in its abstraction.

Avoid learned philistines: They are the blue collars of the thinking business.

When dealing with uncertainty – the worst thing you can do is to FOCUS.

Leave a comment

Filed under Think Tank

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s